Changing Agricultural NH3 Emissions Since 1979: The Impact on N Deposition and Health Effects Across Europe and the Potential for Further Reductions in the Future

Geels, C., Ellermann, T., Hertel, O., Brandt, J., Skjøth, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5992-9568, Winiwarter, W., Im, U., Hansen, K.M. and Christensen, J.H. (2018) Changing Agricultural NH3 Emissions Since 1979: The Impact on N Deposition and Health Effects Across Europe and the Potential for Further Reductions in the Future. In: Air Pollution Modeling and its Application XXV. ITM 2016. Springer Proceedings in Complexity . Springer International Publishing, Cham, pp. 477-482. ISBN Print: 978-3-319-57644-2 Online:978-3-319-57645-9

Abstract

The Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) has been used to study the development in air quality in Europe from 1979 to 2015. The large changes in anthropogenic emissions both within and outside Europe---especially since the beginning of the 1990s---led to a decrease in many air pollutants. The model analysis captured this observed trend. Using the EVA system (Economic Valuation of Air pollution) we were able to derive health impacts, showing (for the European modelling domain) that premature deaths in 2010 were less than half of the 1980 value. While the decrease was also determined for nitrogen compounds in general, the share of reduced nitrogen (NH3 and NH4+) increased---a result of both emission trends and atmospheric behavior. An experimental emission scenario applied to the model suite demonstrated further health improvements are possible for technically feasible measures to reduce ammonia emissions.

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